Prediction ledger
4,376 predictions. Each one is timestamped, hash-chained to the one before it, and refused any edit by the database. Outcomes are graded only after the horizon passes. Failures are never hidden.
| # | Target | Kind | P | Prediction | Made | Resolves | Status | Evidence / outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #804 | "born" | narrative · 24H | 45% | FADES | 2026-10-10 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 12:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 45% that "born" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.53% (+2%). PARTIAL. |
| #788 | "generation" | narrative · 24H | 54% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 12:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 12:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 54% that "generation" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.16% (-6%). PARTIAL. |
| #787 | "represents" | narrative · 24H | 39% | FADES | 2026-10-10 12:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 12:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 39% that "represents" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.35% (-7%). PARTIAL. |
| #770 | "character" | narrative · 24H | 48% | FADES | 2026-10-10 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 11:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 48% that "character" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.48% (+5%). PARTIAL. |
| #763 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 64% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 12:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 64% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.71% → 2.62% (-3%). PARTIAL. |
| #756 | "cartoon" | narrative · 24H | 42% | FADES | 2026-10-10 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 11:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 42% that "cartoon" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.22% → 0.20% (-9%). PARTIAL. |
| #736 | "simple" | narrative · 6H | 31% | FADES | 2026-10-10 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 16:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 31% that "simple" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.77% → 0.72% (-6%). PARTIAL. |
| #734 | "wallet" | narrative · 6H | 28% | FADES | 2026-10-10 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 16:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 28% that "wallet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 0.93% (+6%). PARTIAL. |
| #723 | "live" | narrative · 24H | 45% | FADES | 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 10:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 45% that "live" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.97% → 0.95% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #722 | "fund" | narrative · 24H | 42% | FADES | 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 10:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 42% that "fund" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.60% → 0.60% (+1%). PARTIAL. |
| #720 | "golden" | narrative · 6H | 49% | FADES | 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 16:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 49% that "golden" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.75% → 0.74% (-1%). PARTIAL. |
| #690 | "ram" | narrative · 24H | 47% | FADES | 2026-10-10 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 09:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 47% that "ram" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.08% (-1%). PARTIAL. |
| #689 | "dog" | narrative · 24H | 56% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 09:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 56% that "dog" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.56% → 1.44% (-7%). PARTIAL. |
| #676 | "paid" | narrative · 24H | 30% | FADES | 2026-10-10 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 08:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 30% that "paid" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.65% → 0.69% (+6%). PARTIAL. |
| #668 | "crypto" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-10 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 09:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 50% that "crypto" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.46% → 1.60% (+10%). PARTIAL. |
| #644 | "brand" | narrative · 24H | 56% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 07:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 56% that "brand" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.23% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #643 | "agents" | narrative · 24H | 60% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 07:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 60% that "agents" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 0.86% (-8%). PARTIAL. |
| #642 | "memecoin" | narrative · 24H | 46% | FADES | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 07:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 46% that "memecoin" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.51% → 1.60% (+6%). PARTIAL. |
| #636 | "huge" | narrative · 1H | 62% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 08:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 62% that "huge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.40% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #633 | "musk" | narrative · 1H | 49% | FADES | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 08:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 49% that "musk" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.41% → 7.03% (+10%). PARTIAL. |
| #609 | "behind" | narrative · 24H | 16% | FADES | 2026-10-10 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 06:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 16% that "behind" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.26% (+3%). PARTIAL. |
| #608 | "intelligence" | narrative · 6H | 50% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 12:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 50% that "intelligence" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.88% (-5%). PARTIAL. |
| #564 | "locked" | narrative · 24H | 18% | FADES | 2026-10-10 05:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 05:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 18% that "locked" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.21% (-6%). PARTIAL. |
| #556 | "called" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 05:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 06:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 55% that "called" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.24% (-13%). PARTIAL. |
| #554 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 50% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 05:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 06:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 50% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.89% → 3.16% (+9%). PARTIAL. |
| #548 | "gainbro" | narrative · 24H | 29% | FADES | 2026-10-10 04:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 04:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 29% that "gainbro" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.12% (+6%). PARTIAL. |
| #545 | "persuasion" | narrative · 24H | 61% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 04:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 04:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 61% that "persuasion" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.21% (+5%). PARTIAL. |
| #529 | "gpu" | narrative · 24H | 63% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 04:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 63% that "gpu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.23% (-9%). PARTIAL. |
| #527 | "gpu" | narrative · 6H | 70% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 70% that "gpu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.67% (-3%). PARTIAL. |
| #526 | "cat" | narrative · 6H | 40% | FADES | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 40% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.93% → 4.20% (+7%). PARTIAL. |
| #514 | "inu" | narrative · 24H | 43% | FADES | 2026-10-10 03:30 UTC | 2026-10-11 03:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 43% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.34% → 2.49% (+6%). PARTIAL. |
| #506 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 54% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-10 03:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 04:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.46% → 3.28% (-5%). PARTIAL. |
| #499 | "cat" | narrative · 24H | 45% | FADES | 2026-10-10 03:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 03:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 45% that "cat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 4.41% → 4.24% (-4%). PARTIAL. |
| #474 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 43% | FADES | 2026-10-10 02:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 03:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 43% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.59% → 3.46% (-4%). PARTIAL. |
| #468 | "share" | narrative · 24H | 46% | FADES | 2026-10-10 02:00 UTC | 2026-10-11 02:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 46% that "share" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.21% (-7%). PARTIAL. |
| #450 | "intelligent" | narrative · 6H | 36% | FADES | 2026-10-10 01:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 07:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 36% that "intelligent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.22% → 1.27% (+4%). PARTIAL. |
| #397 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 42% | FADES | 2026-10-09 23:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 00:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 42% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.49% → 4.49% (-0%). PARTIAL. |
| #387 | "please" | narrative · 1H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 23:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 00:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 44% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.68% → 3.64% (-1%). PARTIAL. |
| #386 | "save" | narrative · 1H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 23:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 00:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 44% that "save" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.72% → 3.69% (-1%). PARTIAL. |
| #368 | "half" | narrative · 6H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 52% that "half" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.17% (-5%). PARTIAL. |
| #367 | "tiktok" | narrative · 6H | 14% | FADES | 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 14% that "tiktok" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.54% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #366 | "cat" | narrative · 6H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 04:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.28% → 3.93% (-8%). PARTIAL. |
| #339 | "chain" | narrative · 1H | 64% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 21:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 64% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.94% (-7%). PARTIAL. |
| #332 | "head" | narrative · 6H | 53% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 20:30 UTC | 2026-10-10 02:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 53% that "head" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.18% (-3%). PARTIAL. |
| #328 | "straight" | narrative · 1H | 70% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 20:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 21:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 70% that "straight" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.26% (-0%). PARTIAL. |
| #277 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 39% | FADES | 2026-10-09 18:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 19:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 39% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.22% → 4.15% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #272 | "brain" | narrative · 6H | 26% | FADES | 2026-10-09 18:00 UTC | 2026-10-10 00:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 26% that "brain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.26% (+8%). PARTIAL. |
| #222 | "cat" | narrative · 6H | 41% | FADES | 2026-10-09 16:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 41% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.30% → 4.28% (-0%). PARTIAL. |
| #211 | "wallet" | narrative · 6H | 46% | FADES | 2026-10-09 15:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 21:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 46% that "wallet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.96% → 0.93% (-2%). PARTIAL. |
| #194 | "method" | narrative · 1H | 42% | FADES | 2026-10-09 15:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 42% that "method" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.93% → 2.82% (-4%). PARTIAL. |
| #151 | "bitcoin" | narrative · 6H | 49% | FADES | 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 19:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 49% that "bitcoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.75% (+4%). PARTIAL. |
| #109 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 54% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 54% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.81% → 8.07% (-8%). PARTIAL. |
| #98 | "qseal" | narrative · 1H | 59% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 59% that "qseal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.52% → 4.55% (+1%). PARTIAL. |
| #3 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.12% → 5.60% (+9%). PARTIAL. |
| #2 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 33% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 33% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.27% → 5.00% (-5%). PARTIAL. |