Ledger / Prediction #722 · narrative · 24H
Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 42% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
25 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (15 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.
Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24141568686511503,
"momentum": -0.1424546400640671,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.4156832955091855
},
"features": {
"term": "fund",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.014285714285714285,
"share60": 0.016472868217054265,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1547,
"momentum": 0.8672268907563024,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 25,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 213,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997644444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4156832955091855
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.341
Log loss0.878
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006013358245817495,
"shareRatio": 1.0077513848438915,
"totalAfter": 46563,
"shareBefore": 0.005967604433077579,
"totalBefore": 49266,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 280,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 294
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 42% that "fund" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.60% → 0.60% (+1%). PARTIAL.
— "fund" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
229cd2444daecb787a5cc23b66a62f91ad2c79432b2b453782161a75cd6d53d5Previous hash
58b581a16d5f28e33cfd61084e2e129c8f837dc2d1dd24348fd736d6fbb31bd0