Will "called" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "called" (5 distinct creators, rank #223). Last 15m momentum 1.20×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.1803191086890823,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5449580256903004
},
"features": {
"term": "called",
"rank60": 223,
"share15": 0.003667481662591687,
"share60": 0.003062360801781737,
"total15": 408,
"total60": 1795,
"momentum": 1.1975994665481218,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 254,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968686111111111
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5449580256903004
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0024330900243309003,
"shareRatio": 0.9277294828348314,
"totalAfter": 1233,
"shareBefore": 0.0027808676307007787,
"totalBefore": 1798,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 55% that "called" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.24% (-13%). PARTIAL.
— "called" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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