GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #556 · narrative · 1H

Will "called" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "called" (5 distinct creators, rank #223). Last 15m momentum 1.20×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.1803191086890823,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5449580256903004
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "called",
    "rank60": 223,
    "share15": 0.003667481662591687,
    "share60": 0.003062360801781737,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 1.1975994665481218,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968686111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5449580256903004
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.297
Log loss0.787
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024330900243309003,
  "shareRatio": 0.9277294828348314,
  "totalAfter": 1233,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027808676307007787,
  "totalBefore": 1798,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "called" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.24% (-13%). PARTIAL.

— "called" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2687394962a3bae335a5608936c2d68d5dff39d20065147ce2741bf0979aaca9
Previous hash027188bb9f66fb4eb119cd1ef8dbc7c544615445b643bf4cc8ab05a414bb05b4