Ledger / Prediction #514 · narrative · 24H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 43% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
55 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (37 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.
Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35968429091975557,
"momentum": -0.22305692997932078,
"diversity": -0.09272727272727273
},
"rawProbability": 0.4309319200469317
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.019230769230769232,
"share60": 0.02403637938501516,
"total15": 597,
"total60": 2308,
"momentum": 0.8000693000693001,
"diversity": 0.6727272727272727,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 55,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 317,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9674712847222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4309319200469317
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.324
Log loss0.842
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.024921527733889486,
"shareRatio": 1.0639103105654453,
"totalAfter": 47469,
"shareBefore": 0.02342380399197381,
"totalBefore": 47345,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1183,
"coverageBefore": 0.967508900462963,
"launchesBefore": 1109
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 43% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.34% → 2.49% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0011a78db3aba10b14890d97c579d42f87069903430c6befd61a3c3b1fff9a7bPrevious hash
f3591f0343a748f965a8384065b6a53807ab36032762d1f8c8247870b14cf6aa