Ledger / Prediction #272 · narrative · 6H
Will "brain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 26% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2441 launches in the last hour referenced "brain" (6 distinct creators, rank #224). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.
Made2026-10-09 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -1.208263341094804,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.26493882944816255
},
"features": {
"term": "brain",
"rank60": 224,
"share15": 0.0009174311926605505,
"share60": 0.003071253071253071,
"total15": 544,
"total60": 2441,
"momentum": 0.2987155963302753,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 383,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99465,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991083333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.26493882944816255
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 00:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.540
Log loss1.328
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002609433100658882,
"shareRatio": 1.0726816017758567,
"totalAfter": 15329,
"shareBefore": 0.002426292184398206,
"totalBefore": 13601,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 40,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 33
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 26% that "brain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.26% (+8%). PARTIAL.
— "brain" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9415f4195f3aebec32756a320ffda7a8ab2c4f3b2dc0c8cd76fd4658df5b7af1Previous hash
3dfe3a9426f61e1cfcd3c463fa5996781a2042324c6ca531088f501e512bb635