Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 2362 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (26 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.12921258641066916,
      "diversity": 0.045454545454545414
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45996381691417526
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wallet",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.012458471760797342,
    "share60": 0.014176893779094372,
    "total15": 601,
    "total60": 2362,
    "momentum": 0.8787871274854961,
    "diversity": 0.7878787878787878,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 376,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999881018518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45996381691417526
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009348204500032235,
  "shareRatio": 0.973813577135818,
  "totalAfter": 15511,
  "shareBefore": 0.009587289992695399,
  "totalBefore": 10952,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 145,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity