Ledger / Prediction #506 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

80 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (49 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4158883083359672,
      "momentum": 0.2014003231437264,
      "diversity": -0.16499999999999995
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5379987478739672
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.042642140468227424,
    "share60": 0.034863577306193154,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 1.2231143147967345,
    "diversity": 0.6125,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 80,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990972222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5379987478739672
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.289

Log loss0.772

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03282959874934862,
  "shareRatio": 0.9498706004140787,
  "totalAfter": 1919,
  "shareBefore": 0.03461704889658156,
  "totalBefore": 2311,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.46% → 3.28% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb980bf922eda6e50b3ddd7b23b1020bb3bb3c696f39e7509508d42489a5b7a6a

Previous hashf3a2b008267017e2ffdb0b5939942404c131b2db2f7dbc5c2c19976d6ac4e68d