Ledger / Prediction #526 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (48 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -0.3568600286154999,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40045797631312874
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.026627218934911243,
    "share60": 0.03804592525889239,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 0.6998704527152412,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992476388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40045797631312874
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.359

Log loss0.915

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.041977387539090694,
  "shareRatio": 1.069539886194275,
  "totalAfter": 8314,
  "shareBefore": 0.039266450916936355,
  "totalBefore": 13905,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 349,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 546
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.93% → 4.20% (+7%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd196afcacc620a8e13c87a3c50f689ff1131bf66ce579467f78ea0adf2f7c967

Previous hash30cbe58be6ef00ec618947c7261ab7fdcce1dedaabe008251a710987b6eb6de9