Ledger / Prediction #564 · narrative · 24H

Will "locked" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "locked" (4 distinct creators, rank #57). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -1.9543851116658029,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18470400897404335
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "locked",
    "rank60": 57,
    "share15": 0.0012224938875305623,
    "share60": 0.008630289532293986,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 0.1416515498067671,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998695254629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18470400897404335
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.034

Log loss0.204

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021407317020957764,
  "shareRatio": 0.939287008890982,
  "totalAfter": 46713,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022803159866438636,
  "totalBefore": 49116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 100,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "locked" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.21% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "locked" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdd6ea9d810fada82e1436c107a4f3d37bae6cf69a993e8d61b22e60402c0ea24

Previous hashc27009c8a8e2c7d271e2ceb2d3ea717440dd92a0cbf3d108aab3478a9ac178b5