GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #763 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.62×.

Made2026-10-10 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.4829896990717276,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6352730535432021
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04396984924623116,
    "share60": 0.02712659075686537,
    "total15": 397,
    "total60": 1492,
    "momentum": 1.6209132080153856,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921055555555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6352730535432021
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.404
Log loss1.009
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.026206075044669448,
  "shareRatio": 0.9669750430292599,
  "totalAfter": 1679,
  "shareBefore": 0.027080581241743725,
  "totalBefore": 1514,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 44,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.71% → 2.62% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "quantum" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc820dfc5b9e945903c8bccb6a40b8cbd051fc3564262e5c289215aa4679919be
Previous hashba8028f0a9d1dd5666ca87a02b5623f855ead619a069459121d762719f222720