Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1492 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.62×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 0.4829896990717276,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.6352730535432021
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.04396984924623116,
"share60": 0.02712659075686537,
"total15": 397,
"total60": 1492,
"momentum": 1.6209132080153856,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921055555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921055555555556
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6352730535432021
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.026206075044669448,
"shareRatio": 0.9669750430292599,
"totalAfter": 1679,
"shareBefore": 0.027080581241743725,
"totalBefore": 1514,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 44,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 41
}Predicted 64% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.71% → 2.62% (-3%). PARTIAL.
— "quantum" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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