GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #545 · narrative · 24H

Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.

Made2026-10-10 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 1.3359498834183547,
      "diversity": -0.23181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6147109364873278
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "persuasion",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.17735470941883769,
    "share60": 0.04662802950474183,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 3.803607214428858,
    "diversity": 0.5568181818181818,
    "launches15": 88,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996723032407407
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6147109364873278
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.148
Log loss0.487
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0020665118558128633,
  "shareRatio": 1.0531965622523296,
  "totalAfter": 46939,
  "shareBefore": 0.001962026609985898,
  "totalBefore": 48929,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "persuasion" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.21% (+5%). PARTIAL.

— "persuasion" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8f4534fb64cd6308faa20a3183005968b6fdc844a16beba13872e333460f82a1
Previous hashb90a6e5a649241be0a7ccdde00d111f76222e4f405b0524c0671c51c11c29b7b