Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
88 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43018483530661594,
"momentum": 1.3359498834183547,
"diversity": -0.23181818181818187
},
"rawProbability": 0.6147109364873278
},
"features": {
"term": "persuasion",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.17735470941883769,
"share60": 0.04662802950474183,
"total15": 498,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 3.803607214428858,
"diversity": 0.5568181818181818,
"launches15": 88,
"launches60": 88,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 49
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996723032407407
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6147109364873278
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0020665118558128633,
"shareRatio": 1.0531965622523296,
"totalAfter": 46939,
"shareBefore": 0.001962026609985898,
"totalBefore": 48929,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 97,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 96
}Predicted 61% that "persuasion" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.21% (+5%). PARTIAL.
— "persuasion" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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