Ledger / Prediction #609 · narrative · 24H
Will "behind" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 16% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "behind" (11 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": -2.5950145917003895,
"diversity": -0.42857142857142855
},
"rawProbability": 0.1567534075001824
},
"features": {
"term": "behind",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0019011406844106464,
"share60": 0.02546916890080429,
"total15": 262,
"total60": 1118,
"momentum": 0.07464478687212328,
"diversity": 0.39285714285714285,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 11
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997543055555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.1567534075001824
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.711
Log loss1.853
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002593813117890932,
"shareRatio": 1.031274434294965,
"totalAfter": 47035,
"shareBefore": 0.0025152345507341214,
"totalBefore": 48902,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 122,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 123
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 16% that "behind" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.26% (+3%). PARTIAL.
— "behind" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9436c9e8a0e3f27805bbd5518c5e6a3dd3ac941e659e2d47c561f7e570c80ce9Previous hash
0b4456b7c6e02065981620c182cc99f9beaf97403eef6782127547e4ad878a15