Ledger / Prediction #222 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

109 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (68 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4622864954692565,
      "momentum": -0.410703397842698,
      "diversity": -0.15137614678899078
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4085760266638742
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.030232558139534883,
    "share60": 0.04558701082431307,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 0.6631836041202082,
    "diversity": 0.6238532110091743,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 109,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 68
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994766666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4085760266638742
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.167

Log loss0.525

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0428219746048199,
  "shareRatio": 0.9961815154533946,
  "totalAfter": 15436,
  "shareBefore": 0.04297648781328051,
  "totalBefore": 11611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 661,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 499
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.30% → 4.28% (-0%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash23be9208b7f2a583cbb76acf9609004554c69663ad7bfaac72d6a79e30cb11bd

Previous hash64666724ffb2f73bbda107906dc8c70f05822b9caa02298cd71a1707e4fcaa12