Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (5 distinct creators, rank #159). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.14875369200389982,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.503531837357993
},
"features": {
"term": "intelligence",
"rank60": 159,
"share15": 0.005703422053231939,
"share60": 0.004915102770330653,
"total15": 262,
"total60": 1118,
"momentum": 1.1603871413757345,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990172222222222
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.503531837357993
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.008798994400639927,
"shareRatio": 0.9551887804584975,
"totalAfter": 8751,
"shareBefore": 0.009227822756159137,
"totalBefore": 11487,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 77,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 106
}Predicted 50% that "intelligence" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.88% (-5%). PARTIAL.
— "intelligence" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
0b4456b7c6e02065981620c182cc99f9beaf97403eef6782127547e4ad878a15cc77138b9de82845a9f37463c124b5df81cf533e8f66c48a5f677fbeb5eba693