Ledger / Prediction #554 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (35 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.04451756753002048,
      "diversity": -0.09230769230769224
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5008701856575389
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.030562347188264057,
    "share60": 0.02923162583518931,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 1.0455233438118523,
    "diversity": 0.6730769230769231,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968686111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5008701856575389
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.249

Log loss0.691

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.031630170316301706,
  "shareRatio": 1.096866558616964,
  "totalAfter": 1233,
  "shareBefore": 0.028921023359288096,
  "totalBefore": 1798,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.89% → 3.16% (+9%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6ea5aa0005775d7ceeafcbb47c2a5f01f02436bed3491d50c72493a80521a5f1

Previous hashe317f8b916f9cc7a1d1be09bc024e96a3a564451f28b8fe1e6857fc2a5f7534c