Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
17 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (17 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 2.53×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.18356631474331733,
"momentum": 0.9270658050421137,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5999642278951817
},
"features": {
"term": "agents",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.036458333333333336,
"share60": 0.014427040395713108,
"total15": 287,
"total60": 1212,
"momentum": 2.5270833333333336,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 17,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998011805555556
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5999642278951817
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00859653591441671,
"shareRatio": 0.9225951337104756,
"totalAfter": 47112,
"shareBefore": 0.009319055015123028,
"totalBefore": 48932,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 405,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 456
}Predicted 60% that "agents" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 0.86% (-8%). PARTIAL.
— "agents" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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