GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #328 · narrative · 1H

Will "straight" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "straight" (7 distinct creators, rank #266). Last 15m momentum 2.25×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.809439347509323,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7026418886583058
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "straight",
    "rank60": 266,
    "share15": 0.006284916201117319,
    "share60": 0.0027974636329727715,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 2.2466480446927375,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.997965
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7026418886583058
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.494
Log loss1.213
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026031982149497955,
  "shareRatio": 0.9981412639405204,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.0026080476900149033,
  "totalBefore": 2684,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 70% that "straight" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.26% (-0%). PARTIAL.

— "straight" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbe13571c01ed33714b27ccc11fb42d63dca353eaaee2037efcff5e52138cdefc
Previous hash7cafcc22c213cae01b59509c1f9e43597b50014cd97dc4eec09bef4c4effe0d4