GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #636 · narrative · 1H

Will "huge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "huge" (3 distinct creators, rank #194). Last 15m momentum 2.68×.

Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.9859063050650471,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6238463275957298
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "huge",
    "rank60": 194,
    "share15": 0.012152777777777778,
    "share60": 0.004534212695795548,
    "total15": 287,
    "total60": 1212,
    "momentum": 2.6802398989898992,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952283333333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6238463275957298
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.389
Log loss0.978
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004042037186742118,
  "shareRatio": 0.983037156704362,
  "totalAfter": 1237,
  "shareBefore": 0.004111842105263158,
  "totalBefore": 1216,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "huge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.40% (-2%). PARTIAL.

— "huge" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash707ee8a37320ba8755b6856932e6bea86cf6af2dd16834830e976245b44f75bb
Previous hash077f925684adb1091434602383e6796f3880ba691aa91e3d48a803f26fddfe87