Will "generation" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1590 launches in the last hour referenced "generation" (5 distinct creators, rank #218). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.6408612928468157,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5425048263032638
},
"features": {
"term": "generation",
"rank60": 218,
"share15": 0.006561679790026247,
"share60": 0.0034569453174104338,
"total15": 380,
"total60": 1590,
"momentum": 1.8981150083512288,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968711111111112,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998696296296297
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5425048263032638
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0016085907440819077,
"shareRatio": 0.9374857309636436,
"totalAfter": 46003,
"shareBefore": 0.001717345186382463,
"totalBefore": 49495,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 74,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 85
}Predicted 54% that "generation" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.16% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "generation" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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