Ledger / Prediction #499 · narrative · 24H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (47 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": -0.18697155020979658,
      "diversity": 0.02459016393442619
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.451754819965046
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.023540489642184557,
    "share60": 0.028380249192431935,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.8294673342213648,
    "diversity": 0.7704918032786885,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9464326388888888
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.451754819965046
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.204

Log loss0.601

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.042412110596772176,
  "shareRatio": 0.9624901678749029,
  "totalAfter": 47958,
  "shareBefore": 0.044065001844177824,
  "totalBefore": 46091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2034,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9466671643518518,
  "launchesBefore": 2031
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "cat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 4.41% → 4.24% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8a3cf6eeb92f2d9c730494f168f94c1c7151a5bbcd9ba2e9e80ded4a15f6b2c5

Previous hash8882b4c4648b169402915ee9ba331c46d39bb356642d6a9be3978c864c8491aa