Ledger / Prediction #690 · narrative · 24H
Will "ram" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "ram" (4 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.36×.
Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.8592346145920166,
"diversity": -0.7451612903225806
},
"rawProbability": 0.473494335456556
},
"features": {
"term": "ram",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.05652173913043478,
"share60": 0.023936170212765957,
"total15": 344,
"total60": 1315,
"momentum": 2.361352657004831,
"diversity": 0.12903225806451613,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 202,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999718425925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.473494335456556
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.224
Log loss0.642
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0008312020460358057,
"shareRatio": 0.9922155748588437,
"totalAfter": 46920,
"shareBefore": 0.0008382401046777887,
"totalBefore": 48912,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 39,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 41
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "ram" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.08% (-1%). PARTIAL.
— "ram" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0c52f57923d55053a0f15c57371d21c555bf34dfb3a76d409dbcc638c32e177cPrevious hash
647afd808356e5deb281a15da39acaa11e983fd964cde39b74854d0d7a0e5661