GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #690 · narrative · 24H

Will "ram" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "ram" (4 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.36×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 0.8592346145920166,
      "diversity": -0.7451612903225806
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.473494335456556
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ram",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.05652173913043478,
    "share60": 0.023936170212765957,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 2.361352657004831,
    "diversity": 0.12903225806451613,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999718425925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.473494335456556
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.224
Log loss0.642
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008312020460358057,
  "shareRatio": 0.9922155748588437,
  "totalAfter": 46920,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008382401046777887,
  "totalBefore": 48912,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "ram" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.08% (-1%). PARTIAL.

— "ram" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0c52f57923d55053a0f15c57371d21c555bf34dfb3a76d409dbcc638c32e177c
Previous hash647afd808356e5deb281a15da39acaa11e983fd964cde39b74854d0d7a0e5661