Ledger / Prediction #194 · narrative · 1H

Will "method" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "method" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.4319530336704898,
      "diversity": -0.8272727272727273
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4235328764087907
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "method",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04522184300341297,
    "share60": 0.029359823399558498,
    "total15": 585,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 1.540262772973389,
    "diversity": 0.06060606060606061,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940633333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4235328764087907
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.179

Log loss0.551

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028157349896480333,
  "shareRatio": 0.9602097130242826,
  "totalAfter": 2415,
  "shareBefore": 0.029321663019693654,
  "totalBefore": 2285,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 68,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "method" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.93% → 2.82% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "method" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6a426e56faf1b586821bce3dce0d6bf28917a975f580a42c1bdf36614359edc9

Previous hash25c2a66f21fde5a8a24a36fed868948e7d1b243a553b75e6eecaa69e216b304b