Prediction ledger
5,320 predictions. Each one is timestamped, hash-chained to the one before it, and refused any edit by the database. Outcomes are graded only after the horizon passes. Failures are never hidden.
| # | Target | Kind | P | Prediction | Made | Resolves | Status | Evidence / outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #146 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 48% | FADES | 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.62% → 1.45% (-45%). CORRECT. |
| #140 | "remember" | narrative · 6H | 32% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 32% that "remember" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.17% (-24%). CORRECT. |
| #139 | "clanker" | narrative · 6H | 7% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 7% that "clanker" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.76% → 0.04% (-94%). CORRECT. |
| #138 | "claimed" | narrative · 6H | 47% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 47% that "claimed" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.97% → 0.32% (-67%). CORRECT. |
| #137 | "openwhip" | narrative · 6H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 44% that "openwhip" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #136 | "around" | narrative · 1H | 57% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 57% that "around" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.97% (+248%). CORRECT. |
| #135 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 57% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 57% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.31% → 5.79% (+75%). CORRECT. |
| #134 | "openwhip" | narrative · 1H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 44% that "openwhip" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.64% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #128 | "cute" | narrative · 6H | 48% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 48% that "cute" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.06% (-61%). CORRECT. |
| #125 | "nker" | narrative · 6H | 48% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 18:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 48% that "nker" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.64% → 0.10% (-84%). CORRECT. |
| #124 | "ogcalled" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 13:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "ogcalled" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #115 | "alpha" | narrative · 6H | 7% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 17:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 7% that "alpha" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.23% (-43%). CORRECT. |
| #114 | "inu" | narrative · 6H | 41% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 17:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 41% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.14% → 1.80% (-16%). CORRECT. |
| #113 | "pqc" | narrative · 6H | 31% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 17:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 31% that "pqc" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 0.61% (-38%). CORRECT. |
| #112 | "started" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "started" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #111 | "memecoin" | narrative · 1H | 35% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 35% that "memecoin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 2.02% (-40%). CORRECT. |
| #110 | "pqc" | narrative · 1H | 26% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 26% that "pqc" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.55% → 2.69% (-24%). CORRECT. |
| #104 | "yellow" | narrative · 6H | 34% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 17:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 34% that "yellow" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.08% (-53%). CORRECT. |
| #103 | "memecoin" | narrative · 6H | 51% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 17:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 51% that "memecoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.39% → 2.33% (+67%). CORRECT. |
| #100 | "normal" | narrative · 1H | 23% | FADES | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 23% that "normal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.19% (-47%). CORRECT. |
| #97 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 60% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.09% → 6.13% (+20%). CORRECT. |
| #92 | "chillbunk" | narrative · 6H | 25% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 25% that "chillbunk" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #91 | "him" | narrative · 6H | 45% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 45% that "him" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.09% → 0.36% (-67%). CORRECT. |
| #90 | "green" | narrative · 6H | 47% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 47% that "green" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.00% → 0.81% (-19%). CORRECT. |
| #89 | "leading" | narrative · 6H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 44% that "leading" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.36% → 0.02% (-98%). CORRECT. |
| #88 | "locked" | narrative · 1H | 46% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 46% that "locked" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #87 | "green" | narrative · 1H | 49% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 49% that "green" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.72% → 0.96% (-74%). CORRECT. |
| #86 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 67% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 67% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.04% → 8.81% (+118%). CORRECT. |
| #85 | "leading" | narrative · 1H | 45% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 45% that "leading" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.20% → 0.07% (-98%). CORRECT. |
| #80 | "dnspad" | narrative · 6H | 13% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 13% that "dnspad" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #78 | "quantum" | narrative · 6H | 46% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 46% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 9.81% → 6.82% (-30%). CORRECT. |
| #77 | "cat" | narrative · 6H | 48% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 16:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 48% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 5.56% → 4.30% (-23%). CORRECT. |
| #75 | "blockchain" | narrative · 1H | 42% | FADES | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 11:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 42% that "blockchain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.66% → 0.29% (-89%). CORRECT. |
| #68 | "public" | narrative · 1H | 74% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 74% that "public" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.79% (+77%). CORRECT. |
| #67 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 22% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 22% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.36% → 4.04% (-25%). CORRECT. |
| #66 | "relaunch" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "relaunch" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.46% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #65 | "cas" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "cas" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.53% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #60 | "feral" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 52% that "feral" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.92% (+13%). CORRECT. |
| #52 | "address" | narrative · 1H | 22% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 22% that "address" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.07% (-85%). CORRECT. |
| #51 | "power" | narrative · 1H | 16% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 16% that "power" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.01% → 0.82% (-59%). CORRECT. |
| #50 | "dog" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.71% (-18%). CORRECT. |
| #44 | "clanker" | narrative · 1H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that "clanker" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.34% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #43 | "market" | narrative · 1H | 29% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 29% that "market" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.26% → 2.06% (-37%). CORRECT. |
| #42 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 35% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 35% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.85% → 3.24% (-33%). CORRECT. |
| #41 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 12.87% → 9.73% (-24%). CORRECT. |
| #35 | "justice" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.40% (-90%). CORRECT. |
| #34 | "belgal" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "belgal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT. |
| #33 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 31% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 31% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.16% → 1.36% (-78%). CORRECT. |
| #20 | "misaligned" | narrative · 1H | 17% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 17% that "misaligned" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #12 | "please" | narrative · 1H | 62% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 62% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 1.99% (+286%). CORRECT. |
| #10 | "larp" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "larp" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.14% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #9 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.21% → 2.55% (+15%). CORRECT. |
| #4 | "early" | narrative · 1H | 33% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 33% that "early" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.11% → 0.07% (-93%). CORRECT. |
| #1 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 59% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.02% → 14.12% (+41%). CORRECT. |