Will "dnspad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "dnspad" (8 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -2.152246582053142,
      "diversity": -0.3352941176470588
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12866862361452708
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dnspad",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.001694915254237288,
    "share60": 0.014583333333333334,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.11622276029055689,
    "diversity": 0.47058823529411764,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 128,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9530120370370371
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12866862361452708
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.018153634171546678,
  "totalAfter": 11611,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023044598075098277,
  "totalBefore": 7377,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9533468055555555,
  "launchesBefore": 17
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity