Ledger / Prediction #43 · narrative · 1H

Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1187 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (12 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-09 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.36282666441664047,
      "diversity": -0.5307692307692308
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2920440276824113
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.023131672597864767,
    "share60": 0.03324915824915825,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1187,
    "momentum": 0.6957070138294517,
    "diversity": 0.3076923076923077,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929755555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929755555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2920440276824113
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.085

Log loss0.345

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02064896755162242,
  "shareRatio": 0.6369784427674599,
  "totalAfter": 1356,
  "shareBefore": 0.03258145363408521,
  "totalBefore": 1197,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "market" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.26% → 2.06% (-37%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "market" (1H). diversity contributed -0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash12cc9400872bfad46e3c3cccff044392cd6a1a5d6d70feac1e7d9047e683c754

Previous hash8bd48333c363167e1ede29a912e78067ba472566f0632bbd93e0d3ef9c69dbdc