Ledger / Prediction #34 · narrative · 1H

Will "belgal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1181 launches in the last hour referenced "belgal" (21 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -3.124360591277735,
      "diversity": -0.3638297872340426
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "belgal",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0017667844522968198,
    "share60": 0.04018612521150592,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1181,
    "momentum": 0.0439650362655756,
    "diversity": 0.44680851063829785,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963241666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963241666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016051364365971107,
  "shareRatio": 0.050099185413413246,
  "totalAfter": 1246,
  "shareBefore": 0.03962900505902192,
  "totalBefore": 1186,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "belgal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "belgal" (1H). momentum contributed -3.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1c4a484b89ecd727da67dccd8e30195d8379445692af16d82c5d3877584cb20b

Previous hash57572af985b1f9a2c0299c1a04cd76f9e69fc64307de6f73a0fa88e2f172ef92