Ledger / Prediction #1 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

132 of 1333 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (79 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.45×.

Made2026-10-09 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49100460152284053,
      "momentum": 0.37402654132451585,
      "diversity": -0.1818181818181818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5946477957445093
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.14437689969604864,
    "share60": 0.09932533733133433,
    "total15": 328,
    "total60": 1333,
    "momentum": 1.4535757297700294,
    "diversity": 0.5984848484848485,
    "launches15": 47,
    "launches60": 132,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 79
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918430555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918430555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5946477957445093
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.164

Log loss0.520

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.14115011202389843,
  "shareRatio": 1.4068733821666575,
  "totalAfter": 1339,
  "shareBefore": 0.10022271714922049,
  "totalBefore": 1347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 189,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 135
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.02% → 14.12% (+41%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashadd5f3a5888b352eada7dd333c0e3271a046a81ff916d27c67b2db9bbc73d3f4

Previous hashGENESIS