Will "leading" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "leading" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.5429679732116288,
      "diversity": -0.809433962264151
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4406223857054107
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "leading",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07348703170028818,
    "share60": 0.0426975259377494,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 1.7211074901020766,
    "diversity": 0.07547169811320754,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991536574074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4406223857054107
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002441604948319362,
  "shareRatio": 0.020853389119273303,
  "totalAfter": 12287,
  "shareBefore": 0.013595752945746472,
  "totalBefore": 7723,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity