Ledger / Prediction #124 · narrative · 1H

Will "ogcalled" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 1571 launches in the last hour referenced "ogcalled" (4 distinct creators, rank #46). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

Made2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -2.139991321599742,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05441317105171842
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ogcalled",
    "rank60": 46,
    "share15": 0.001160092807424594,
    "share60": 0.009860050890585241,
    "total15": 430,
    "total60": 1571,
    "momentum": 0.11765586408202978,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 190,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943713888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05441317105171842
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.056

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.02725815072153928,
  "totalAfter": 1870,
  "shareBefore": 0.00949367088607595,
  "totalBefore": 1580,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "ogcalled" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ogcalled" (1H). momentum contributed -2.14 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1b7653dd837c065e9d1b0958ff098b06ee31e65e3c1b041da1ef6eeffa74482a

Previous hash500c5f0b92434d719a0d7a104994226bd6fc2a595562d1162711d5d6a40c7376