Ledger / Prediction #135 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1784 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (50 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.

Made2026-10-09 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 0.0771896386911301,
      "diversity": 0.11694915254237283
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.565706230067915
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0360082304526749,
    "share60": 0.03333333333333333,
    "total15": 485,
    "total60": 1784,
    "momentum": 1.080246913580247,
    "diversity": 0.847457627118644,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996561111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996561111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.565706230067915
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.189

Log loss0.570

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05793178126691933,
  "shareRatio": 1.74610753392266,
  "totalAfter": 1847,
  "shareBefore": 0.03305322128851541,
  "totalBefore": 1785,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 107,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.31% → 5.79% (+75%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash962537e04fa0d5aaa3b8f3dde3e4a18b7340031376a84b55b0b2cf5becfaae27

Previous hash8ea5b06e335976d0da2f0680b8321aba595f2a1b935342d4ad8e7f8b73846b4d