GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #86 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (41 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.75×.

Made2026-10-09 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 0.5606709562185763,
      "diversity": 0.08399999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6659799892181969
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.07060518731988473,
    "share60": 0.04030327214684756,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 1.751847519045853,
    "diversity": 0.82,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949219444444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6659799892181969
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.112
Log loss0.406
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.08805460750853242,
  "shareRatio": 2.1663664419396285,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.04041204437400951,
  "totalBefore": 1262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 129,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.04% → 8.81% (+118%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed +0.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashad1754e086fc586bf81c5f6ad3a3ed3f7596e13881fbb078d49a7d0c2ee15e5d
Previous hash5f24ff624c07bf4fd830afef822d9816a23ddf03203cb6473f7277832fe7eb9c