Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
50 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (41 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.75×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34538776394910686,
"momentum": 0.5606709562185763,
"diversity": 0.08399999999999994
},
"rawProbability": 0.6659799892181969
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.07060518731988473,
"share60": 0.04030327214684756,
"total15": 346,
"total60": 1252,
"momentum": 1.751847519045853,
"diversity": 0.82,
"launches15": 24,
"launches60": 50,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 142,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949219444444445
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6659799892181969
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.08805460750853242,
"shareRatio": 2.1663664419396285,
"totalAfter": 1465,
"shareBefore": 0.04041204437400951,
"totalBefore": 1262,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 129,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Predicted 67% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.04% → 8.81% (+118%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed +0.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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