Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.018284201494888807,
      "diversity": -0.09069767441860467
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4624825789070622
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.03559322033898305,
    "share60": 0.03625,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.9818819403857394,
    "diversity": 0.6744186046511628,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 128,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9530120370370371
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4624825789070622
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06821117905434501,
  "shareRatio": 0.6950123227512436,
  "totalAfter": 11611,
  "shareBefore": 0.09814287650806561,
  "totalBefore": 7377,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 792,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9533468055555555,
  "launchesBefore": 724
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity