Will "openwhip" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

65 of 1784 launches in the last hour referenced "openwhip" (14 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.37×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3847424036192305,
      "momentum": 0.31758804522272077,
      "diversity": -0.6415384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4404815327742191
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "openwhip",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.050411522633744855,
    "share60": 0.03669467787114846,
    "total15": 485,
    "total60": 1784,
    "momentum": 1.3738101969654133,
    "diversity": 0.2153846153846154,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 65,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996561111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996561111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4404815327742191
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007377482568322263,
  "totalAfter": 1847,
  "shareBefore": 0.036414565826330535,
  "totalBefore": 1785,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity