Ledger / Prediction #111 · narrative · 1H

Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

Made2026-10-09 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -0.044625422623392204,
      "diversity": -0.625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3474286962157735
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.031725888324873094,
    "share60": 0.03317373461012312,
    "total15": 393,
    "total60": 1461,
    "momentum": 0.9563556439374116,
    "diversity": 0.22916666666666666,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974325
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3474286962157735
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.121

Log loss0.427

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.020168067226890758,
  "shareRatio": 0.6052575022339861,
  "totalAfter": 1785,
  "shareBefore": 0.033447098976109216,
  "totalBefore": 1465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "memecoin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 2.02% (-40%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "memecoin" (1H). diversity contributed -0.63 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9f75c0716d2fa1d57847541e54ef341167d60622b516b66ba4cf192b433d2edb

Previous hash40e2522377bedb4587e373dc4fe92917730326ade29a1aea916816ca211943b9