Will "started" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "started" (4 distinct creators, rank #153). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.35569828598435366,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4957617313891493
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "started",
    "rank60": 153,
    "share15": 0.006345177664974619,
    "share60": 0.004445964432284542,
    "total15": 393,
    "total60": 1461,
    "momentum": 1.427176884029676,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974325
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4957617313891493
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06314066672409337,
  "totalAfter": 1785,
  "shareBefore": 0.004095563139931741,
  "totalBefore": 1465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity