Ledger / Prediction #41 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

151 of 1187 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (94 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

Made2026-10-09 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5111762886571235,
      "momentum": -0.06736835552955849,
      "diversity": -0.15298013245033118
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49770696624521826
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.11921708185053381,
    "share60": 0.1275252525252525,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1187,
    "momentum": 0.9348507804517108,
    "diversity": 0.6225165562913907,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 151,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 94
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929755555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929755555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49770696624521826
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.248

Log loss0.689

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.09734513274336283,
  "shareRatio": 0.7571193833723256,
  "totalAfter": 1356,
  "shareBefore": 0.1286549707602339,
  "totalBefore": 1197,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 132,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 154
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 12.87% → 9.73% (-24%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). diversity contributed -0.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash14ba5e0d8fff8cf0535b00f595615d6c87752b45e3d691545b512f86a0450638

Previous hash5e43c56590d95fcf4c9613723a57a7ba2d32b05fbc3ff3dd91f3a9e810696085