Ledger / Prediction #33 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

73 of 1181 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (15 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40215322930714364,
      "momentum": -0.2650794204516014,
      "diversity": -0.6534246575342466
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30653882200530586
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04770318021201413,
    "share60": 0.06218274111675127,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1181,
    "momentum": 0.7671450205523905,
    "diversity": 0.2054794520547945,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 73,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963241666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963241666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30653882200530586
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.094

Log loss0.366

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013643659711075442,
  "shareRatio": 0.226639172108298,
  "totalAfter": 1246,
  "shareBefore": 0.06155143338954469,
  "totalBefore": 1186,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 73
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.16% → 1.36% (-78%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash57572af985b1f9a2c0299c1a04cd76f9e69fc64307de6f73a0fa88e2f172ef92

Previous hashd6f42890e5c0bc64e396120796ceba29510e57b668d829216646c56e6487e8e5