Will "chillbunk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "chillbunk" (5 distinct creators, rank #166). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.2809781825123279,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24832961300292236
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chillbunk",
    "rank60": 166,
    "share15": 0.001440922190201729,
    "share60": 0.0051875498802873106,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 0.2777654622035025,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991536574074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24832961300292236
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.04835236378205128,
  "totalAfter": 12287,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007769001683283698,
  "totalBefore": 7723,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity