Ledger / Prediction #87 · narrative · 1H

Will "green" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "green" (6 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.94×.

Made2026-10-09 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.6619199160729942,
      "diversity": -0.7468085106382979
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48780688260466915
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "green",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.07348703170028818,
    "share60": 0.03790901835594573,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 1.9385105414833916,
    "diversity": 0.1276595744680851,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949219444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48780688260466915
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00955631399317406,
  "shareRatio": 0.262992747899763,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.03724247226624406,
  "totalBefore": 1262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "green" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.72% → 0.96% (-74%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "green" (1H). diversity contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9008cc6ca6e36ee1ca60ccf3cbc37025f2acd478af3a9962a7a77c891225a1ba

Previous hashad1754e086fc586bf81c5f6ad3a3ed3f7596e13881fbb078d49a7d0c2ee15e5d