GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #97 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (17 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.56×.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": 0.9384676859634391,
      "diversity": -0.6126760563380281
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6043869196059366
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1310096153846154,
    "share60": 0.05125448028673835,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1394,
    "momentum": 2.5560617267348036,
    "diversity": 0.23943661971830985,
    "launches15": 54,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999369444444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6043869196059366
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.504
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.06131479140328698,
  "shareRatio": 1.2016883937288232,
  "totalAfter": 1582,
  "shareBefore": 0.050932568149210905,
  "totalBefore": 1394,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.09% → 6.13% (+20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb4b2bf341261aaff9824ecc01c3966c1e753ec812bae4264ff532a37723aec54
Previous hash44edd590c6cc1ba2008187d8230bf469ea18bbffdf730d4642d918f75658ae93