Ledger / Prediction #97 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
71 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (17 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.56×.
Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3979862946910822,
"momentum": 0.9384676859634391,
"diversity": -0.6126760563380281
},
"rawProbability": 0.6043869196059366
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.1310096153846154,
"share60": 0.05125448028673835,
"total15": 415,
"total60": 1394,
"momentum": 2.5560617267348036,
"diversity": 0.23943661971830985,
"launches15": 54,
"launches60": 71,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 160,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999369444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6043869196059366
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.504
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.06131479140328698,
"shareRatio": 1.2016883937288232,
"totalAfter": 1582,
"shareBefore": 0.050932568149210905,
"totalBefore": 1394,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 97,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 71
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.09% → 6.13% (+20%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b4b2bf341261aaff9824ecc01c3966c1e753ec812bae4264ff532a37723aec54Previous hash
44edd590c6cc1ba2008187d8230bf469ea18bbffdf730d4642d918f75658ae93