Will "cas" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

128 of 1334 launches in the last hour referenced "cas" (128 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4863888527228275,
      "momentum": -3.954508334940571,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cas",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0018450184501845018,
    "share60": 0.09625468164794007,
    "total15": 270,
    "total60": 1334,
    "momentum": 0.01916809051358996,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 128,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 128
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 161,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926969444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926969444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004140595395436103,
  "totalAfter": 1262,
  "shareBefore": 0.0953090096798213,
  "totalBefore": 1343,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 128
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity