Ledger / Prediction #85 · narrative · 1H

Will "leading" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1252 launches in the last hour referenced "leading" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.72×.

Made2026-10-09 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.5429679732116288,
      "diversity": -0.809433962264151
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44711408589042534
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "leading",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07348703170028818,
    "share60": 0.0426975259377494,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1252,
    "momentum": 1.7211074901020766,
    "diversity": 0.07547169811320754,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949219444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949219444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44711408589042534
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.200

Log loss0.593

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006825938566552901,
  "shareRatio": 0.024154989736201248,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.041996830427892234,
  "totalBefore": 1262,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "leading" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.20% → 0.07% (-98%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "leading" (1H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5f24ff624c07bf4fd830afef822d9816a23ddf03203cb6473f7277832fe7eb9c

Previous hashbd91e2cba20b039ab455020a2d8c0ae2286ddda58165f3440bcdd23b9dc6004c