Ledger / Prediction #4 · narrative · 1H

Will "early" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

15 of 1333 launches in the last hour referenced "early" (5 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-09 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.16479184330021643,
      "momentum": -0.08819757971963586,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3266434578893126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "early",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.010638297872340425,
    "share60": 0.011619190404797601,
    "total15": 328,
    "total60": 1333,
    "momentum": 0.9155799588194921,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 15,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918430555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918430555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3266434578893126
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.107

Log loss0.395

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007468259895444362,
  "shareRatio": 0.09735194992778046,
  "totalAfter": 1339,
  "shareBefore": 0.011135857461024499,
  "totalBefore": 1347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "early" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.11% → 0.07% (-93%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "early" (1H). diversity contributed -0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash65e196acaaea44758be703ad67903b4ada8d24b99614067195d4b11f1867be94

Previous hash46f8cb14c0d6aacabe74333e7e01b6b97a40970a33651fd0189b8ceb5f74097a