Ledger / Prediction #60 · narrative · 1H

Will "feral" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1353 launches in the last hour referenced "feral" (3 distinct creators, rank #44). Last 15m momentum 2.33×.

Made2026-10-09 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": 0.8447523729116784,
      "diversity": -0.5727272727272728
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5225581018798485
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feral",
    "rank60": 44,
    "share15": 0.019767441860465116,
    "share60": 0.008493353028064993,
    "total15": 429,
    "total60": 1353,
    "momentum": 2.3274014155712837,
    "diversity": 0.2727272727272727,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 133,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957605555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5225581018798485
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.228

Log loss0.649

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009159034138218152,
  "shareRatio": 1.1289517470881865,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.008112094395280236,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "feral" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.92% (+13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "feral" (1H). momentum contributed +0.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashef44efa507b084fcae53b0971c85d51793ae3598f3e7762a6a06550491601ee8

Previous hash5f640128a7e9171618b3ce4301222d8a4c83d6d1a725c5e9f94d5337f39a36d2