Prediction ledger
6,248 predictions. Each one is timestamped, hash-chained to the one before it, and refused any edit by the database. Outcomes are graded only after the horizon passes. Failures are never hidden.
| # | Target | Kind | P | Prediction | Made | Resolves | Status | Evidence / outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #68 | "public" | narrative · 1H | 74% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 74% that "public" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.79% (+77%). CORRECT. |
| #67 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 22% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 22% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.36% → 4.04% (-25%). CORRECT. |
| #66 | "relaunch" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "relaunch" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.46% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #65 | "cas" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "cas" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.53% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #60 | "feral" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 52% that "feral" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.92% (+13%). CORRECT. |
| #59 | "rug" | narrative · 1H | 84% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 84% that "rug" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.51% → 0.58% (-94%). INCORRECT. |
| #58 | "arkum" | narrative · 1H | 84% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 84% that "arkum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.51% → 0.42% (-96%). INCORRECT. |
| #57 | "posted" | narrative · 1H | 83% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 83% that "posted" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.59% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #52 | "address" | narrative · 1H | 22% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 22% that "address" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.07% (-85%). CORRECT. |
| #51 | "power" | narrative · 1H | 16% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 16% that "power" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.01% → 0.82% (-59%). CORRECT. |
| #50 | "dog" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.71% (-18%). CORRECT. |
| #49 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 69% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 69% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 1.71% (-57%). INCORRECT. |
| #44 | "clanker" | narrative · 1H | 10% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 10% that "clanker" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.34% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #43 | "market" | narrative · 1H | 29% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 29% that "market" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.26% → 2.06% (-37%). CORRECT. |
| #42 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 35% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 35% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.85% → 3.24% (-33%). CORRECT. |
| #41 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 50% | FADES | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 09:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 50% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 12.87% → 9.73% (-24%). CORRECT. |
| #36 | "viewers" | narrative · 1H | 77% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 77% that "viewers" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #35 | "justice" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.40% (-90%). CORRECT. |
| #34 | "belgal" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "belgal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.96% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT. |
| #33 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 31% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 31% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.16% → 1.36% (-78%). CORRECT. |
| #28 | "holy" | narrative · 1H | 69% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 69% that "holy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT. |
| #27 | "oscar" | narrative · 1H | 67% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 67% that "oscar" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.18% → 1.75% (-66%). INCORRECT. |
| #26 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.28% → 4.85% (-41%). INCORRECT. |
| #25 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 44% | FADES | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 44% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.16% → 12.87% (+41%). INCORRECT. |
| #20 | "misaligned" | narrative · 1H | 17% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 17% that "misaligned" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #19 | "steam" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "steam" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.08% (-97%). INCORRECT. |
| #18 | "correct" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "correct" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.76% (-75%). INCORRECT. |
| #17 | "answer" | narrative · 1H | 65% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:30 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 65% that "answer" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.06% → 0.17% (-94%). INCORRECT. |
| #12 | "please" | narrative · 1H | 62% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 62% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 1.99% (+286%). CORRECT. |
| #11 | "chain" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | INCORRECT | Predicted 55% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.70% → 1.04% (-39%). INCORRECT. |
| #10 | "larp" | narrative · 1H | 5% | FADES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 5% that "larp" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.14% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT. |
| #9 | "inu" | narrative · 1H | 55% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 06:00 UTC | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.21% → 2.55% (+15%). CORRECT. |
| #4 | "early" | narrative · 1H | 33% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 33% that "early" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.11% → 0.07% (-93%). CORRECT. |
| #3 | "cat" | narrative · 1H | 52% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.12% → 5.60% (+9%). PARTIAL. |
| #2 | "uxento" | narrative · 1H | 33% | FADES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | PARTIAL | Predicted 33% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.27% → 5.00% (-5%). PARTIAL. |
| #1 | "quantum" | narrative · 1H | 59% | ACCELERATES | 2026-10-09 05:30 UTC | 2026-10-09 06:30 UTC | CORRECT | Predicted 59% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.02% → 14.12% (+41%). CORRECT. |