Ledger / Prediction #58 · narrative · 1H

Will "arkum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 84% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

129 of 1353 launches in the last hour referenced "arkum" (129 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.12×.

Made2026-10-09 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48755617378913574,
      "momentum": 1.1392812679802944,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8357359392782044
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "arkum",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.2988372093023256,
    "share60": 0.09564254062038405,
    "total15": 429,
    "total60": 1353,
    "momentum": 3.124521864056748,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 128,
    "launches60": 129,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 129
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 133,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957605555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8357359392782044
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.698

Log loss1.806

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004163197335553705,
  "shareRatio": 0.04794775759833996,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.09513274336283185,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 129
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 84% that "arkum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.51% → 0.42% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "arkum" (1H). momentum contributed +1.14 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "arkum". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2420187064c2c375b4134f3dd551a75ce11a808b8c69348ad2301eaa51382c13

Previous hashb396182771226a52daec26c7958d768988666af18a0f0fe1324c3fd80270ab15