GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #49 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1244 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.81×.

Made2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 1.0318933645777109,
      "diversity": -0.27599999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6902484602230088
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1138328530259366,
    "share60": 0.040562248995983936,
    "total15": 346,
    "total60": 1244,
    "momentum": 2.8063742973721,
    "diversity": 0.52,
    "launches15": 39,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988177777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988177777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6902484602230088
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 09:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.172
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01712583767684289,
  "shareRatio": 0.4317612564827912,
  "totalAfter": 1343,
  "shareBefore": 0.04012841091492777,
  "totalBefore": 1246,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 1.71% (-57%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +1.03 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash757cd35e3b9afd50d28ab8c736b76c7e7b9c1b197b44857e4ae4d7ce5ee40bbe
Previous hash5287bd39136673b3618197a986f805bce9b2d9cafb4a78535bafa25ff075332f