Ledger / Prediction #57 · narrative · 1H

Will "posted" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 83% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

130 of 1353 launches in the last hour referenced "posted" (130 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.10×.

Made2026-10-09 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4887144807032223,
      "momentum": 1.1315889223571387,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.834836968549104
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "posted",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.2988372093023256,
    "share60": 0.09638109305760709,
    "total15": 429,
    "total60": 1353,
    "momentum": 3.100579167780451,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 128,
    "launches60": 130,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 130
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 133,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957605555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957605555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.834836968549104
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.697

Log loss1.801

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004325485621027534,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.09587020648967552,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 130
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 83% that "posted" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.59% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "posted" (1H). momentum contributed +1.13 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "posted". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb396182771226a52daec26c7958d768988666af18a0f0fe1324c3fd80270ab15

Previous hash6fee8724bc854b48ec651cf9acc21fe28423371f3ab1778688db5814f6d28e10