Ledger / Prediction #26 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

104 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (45 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.38×.

Made2026-10-09 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45524294800609083,
      "momentum": 0.32208777374812075,
      "diversity": -0.38076923076923075
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5241216329051788
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.11472602739726027,
    "share60": 0.08313444709626094,
    "total15": 291,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 1.380005898931638,
    "diversity": 0.4326923076923077,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 104,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993702777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993702777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5241216329051788
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.275

Log loss0.743

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04845446950710108,
  "shareRatio": 0.5873784856738903,
  "totalAfter": 1197,
  "shareBefore": 0.08280254777070063,
  "totalBefore": 1256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.28% → 4.85% (-41%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.46 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash48e9727c48fd79ddcc6c0d2b17ff7f03ce36ebc5b6ac5c9eed149bd2bf3d5385

Previous hash9df2937f7b9e13c59dcffab7f53ec9f8371bdcf446520623e11fbea3a05e22b2