Ledger / Prediction #25 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
115 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (67 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.
Made2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.47032413238937243,
"momentum": -0.22148818850626542,
"diversity": -0.20086956521739133
},
"rawProbability": 0.43732301904736565
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.07363013698630137,
"share60": 0.09188544152744631,
"total15": 291,
"total60": 1256,
"momentum": 0.8013253869418253,
"diversity": 0.5826086956521739,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 115,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 67
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 124,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993702777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993702777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.43732301904736565
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.317
Log loss0.827
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.1286549707602339,
"shareRatio": 1.4035405329228368,
"totalAfter": 1197,
"shareBefore": 0.09156050955414012,
"totalBefore": 1256,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 154,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 115
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 44% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.16% → 12.87% (+41%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed -0.22 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9df2937f7b9e13c59dcffab7f53ec9f8371bdcf446520623e11fbea3a05e22b2Previous hash
6c73d20f269563e34fe013d03bc1f315d8b5eea96d8f0b11b3752ed2e5689af6